Energy storage market growth exceeds expectations; lithium industry supply and demand expected to improve.

From November 24th to 26th, the 2nd China International Lithium Industry Conference 2025, hosted by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and co-organized by Tianqi Lithium Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "Tianqi Lithium"), was held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The conference focused on four core themes: "stabilizing supply, strengthening the supply chain, promoting innovation, and seeking win-win cooperation," exploring topics such as technological innovation and global collaboration under the new circumstances, and the resilience and security of the industrial and supply chains. Among these, the unexpected growth of the new energy storage market and the industrialization progress of solid-state batteries became hot topics.

After hovering at low levels in the first half of the year, lithium prices have gradually rebounded this year. Currently, both lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have risen above 90,000 yuan/ton. Industry insiders generally hold optimistic expectations for future supply and demand dynamics and market trends, with the growth of energy storage being one of the market highlights.

Yang Chengxiao, Vice General Manager and Director of the Research Institute of Minmetals Securities, stated that from the demand side, energy storage passed the economic inflection point in 2025 and entered a period of rapid growth. Global energy storage capacity is projected to increase by 268 GWh for the year, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with an expected compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% ​​over the next ten years. Meanwhile, the market potential for new energy passenger vehicles globally is still three to four times greater. The release of lithium resource supply is affected by factors such as price, demand orders, corporate funding, shipping capacity, and national policies. Overall, it is expected that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will reach a tight balance in 2026.

Zhang Jiangfeng, vice president of the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that the current combination of bottoming-out inventory, high demand growth, and cost support creates a triple positive factor. As the inventory-to-sales ratio continues to decline, the momentum for a rebound in lithium prices is constantly strengthening. In the long term, the tight supply-demand balance will drive the lithium price center upwards gradually, and the industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle. At the same time, price volatility may intensify, and the price may be affected by multiple factors in the short term.

"Through effective policy guidance and technological innovation upgrades, the lithium industry is ushering in new development opportunities," said Jiang Anqi, Chairman of Tianqi Lithium. He noted that the demand for basic lithium materials in energy storage and power batteries continues to rise, with global lithium demand projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, essentially achieving supply-demand balance and laying a solid foundation for the industry's development. Simultaneously, continuous improvements in electrification technologies in key carbon reduction and emerging application areas, breakthroughs in crucial aspects of next-generation high-energy-density batteries led by solid-state batteries, and a surge of technological innovation across the industry's upstream and downstream sectors are all bringing positive impacts to the sector.

In addition to new energy storage technologies, the development of innovative technologies, represented by solid-state batteries, has received widespread attention.

At this conference, Tianqi Lithium officially launched its new lithium sulfide product. Liu Yang, Dean of the Tianqi Lithium Research Institute, explained that lithium sulfide directly determines the electrochemical performance parameters of the electrolyte. The newly launched lithium sulfide product boasts high purity, which is beneficial for improving the performance of sulfide electrolytes. "With the decreasing cost and improved performance of lithium sulfide materials, the application of all-solid-state batteries will be comprehensively promoted, accelerating the electrification of transportation and the consumption of renewable energy," said Liu Yang.

Currently, upstream and downstream companies in the lithium battery industry chain are actively promoting the industrialization of solid-state batteries. For example, in the first half of the year, Guoxuan High-Tech Co., Ltd.'s Jinshi all-solid-state battery has achieved pilot production line establishment and internal vehicle road testing, and has now started the design work for a 2GWh mass production line, striving to complete the design finalization by the end of this year. CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. continues to invest firmly in all-solid-state batteries, and is expected to achieve small-batch production in 2027. Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. completed the development of a 304Ah square solid-state energy storage battery in the first half of 2025, and its 314Ah and 392Ah solid-state batteries are also planned to be launched by the end of the year.

Zhang Xinyuan, head of research at Beijing Kefangde Technology Development Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily that solid-state batteries, as an important direction for next-generation battery technology, will bring significant market advantages due to their high safety and high energy density. Currently, companies in the industry chain are in the early stages of technological breakthroughs and industrialization. Investors should focus on companies with leading technologies, large R&D investments, and strong industrialization potential.

Yu Fenghui, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank (Beijing) Information Consulting Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily that the main challenges currently facing solid-state batteries are improving conductivity, optimizing interface stability, and reducing manufacturing costs. These all require technological innovation and breakthroughs from companies across the industry chain. By overcoming these technical hurdles, solid-state batteries are expected to achieve large-scale commercial application.