The highest tax rate of 249.09%! The United States has taken two measures simultaneously, escalating the investigation into the solar panel trade war.

Global Photovoltaics has learned that the anti-dumping/anti-subsidy tax (AD/CVD) investigation by the United States against solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia, and Laos has witnessed a significant procedural turn. As the main complainant, the American Solar Manufacturing and Trade Association (AASMT) is requesting the US Department of Commerce to extend the preliminary ruling period for the anti-dumping tax by approximately 50 days and has officially submitted the "Critical Circumstances" claim in late January. This move may result in the relevant tariffs being retroactive to imported products as early as November 2025, involving an amount exceeding 1.5 billion US dollars.

Two key actions

According to an informed source, AASMT stated in the documents submitted to the US Department of Commerce that, given the fact that this investigation covers multiple countries and involves both battery cells and components, the overall complexity of the investigation is extremely high and the resource investment is huge. There are still a large number of supplementary questionnaires awaiting processing, and the Department of Commerce may need to initiate a new round of questionnaire survey procedures before making the initial ruling. If the extension application is approved, the preliminary anti-dumping ruling originally scheduled for December 24, 2025, will be postponed to around April 21, 2026. In contrast, there is no extension application for the preliminary anti-subsidy ruling, and it is still expected to be announced around February 20, 2026. Additionally, AASMT submitted a "key circumstances" accusation to the US Secretary of Commerce in late January. According to the application documents, the export volumes of photovoltaic products from India, Indonesia, and Laos have significantly increased recently. The complainant believes that the relevant manufacturers are concentrating their shipments to the US market before the implementation of the double anti-dumping tariffs. AASMT is urging the Department of Commerce to make a ruling on the "key circumstances" as soon as possible and explicitly hopes to complete the determination by February 20, 2026, before the announcement of the preliminary anti-subsidy ruling. Once the "key circumstances" are determined, the relevant tariffs can be retroactively applied to imported products entering the US market up to 90 days before the announcement. This means that the relevant products from Indonesia, India, and Laos that entered the US in November 2025 may all be included in the retroactive taxation scope.

Closing trade loopholes?

This survey is regarded by the industry as a chain reaction following the imposition of the highest 3521% tariffs by the United States on Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia in April 2025. At that time, the US Department of Commerce determined that Chinese enterprises were circumventing tariffs by manufacturing through the four Southeast Asian countries, and some enterprises were subject to punitive anti-subsidy rates exceeding 3400%. Against this backdrop, a large amount of photovoltaic production capacity rapidly shifted to countries such as Indonesia and Laos that were not included in the tax list. Indonesia, taking advantage of the exemption from US 201 tariffs, became a key location for Chinese enterprises to deploy TOPCon and HPBC high-efficiency technologies overseas; Laos was accused by AASMT of being a low-price component substitution channel. According to industry statistics, as of May 2025, at least 15 photovoltaic enterprises have invested in battery and module production capacity in Indonesia, including leading companies such as Hengdu Dongzhi and Zhongrun Guangneng. Trina Solar has 1GW of battery and module production capacity in Indonesia, while Zhongrun Guangneng has 15GW of battery production capacity in Laos. The dumping rates claimed by the complainant in the application documents are shocking. Indonesia is approximately 89.65%, Laos up to 249.09%, and India about 213.96%.

The US photovoltaic supply chain faces further pressure

Although domestic manufacturers in the United States are actively seeking trade protection, organizations such as the American Solar Industry Association (SEIA) have previously expressed concerns about excessive taxation. Industry analysis indicates that the previous imposition of tariffs on four Southeast Asian countries has already put pressure on downstream American enterprises that rely on imports. If the scope of taxation is further expanded, it may exacerbate the supply chain difficulties and cost pressures of domestic photovoltaic projects in the United States. The United States International Trade Commission (USITC) made a preliminary affirmative determination of industry damage on September 2, 2025, finding reasonable indications that the imported products from the three countries have caused substantial damage to the American industry. Currently, the US Department of Commerce has not responded clearly to the extension application of the alliance and the "emergency situation" claim. In the coming months, as the preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy taxes and anti-dumping taxes are successively announced, the tariff details for the export of photovoltaic products from India, Indonesia, and Laos to the United States will gradually become clear. This will not only affect the overseas expansion plans of photovoltaic enterprises in these three countries, but also have an impact on the supply chain pattern of the global photovoltaic industry.